Detailed explanation of super sovereign currency

First of all, you have to understand what currency is international currency (USD, yen, euro), and they are credit currencies! Super sovereign currency means that it does not belong to a credit currency! I previously explained a class about the internationalization of the renminbi in the class, sorted out some information, and sent it to you. I hope it will be helpful to you! I found a lot of information to organize!
The constraints and obstacles of RMB internationalization

Reporters: From the perspective of the current status of China, what are the constraints and obstacles in the internationalization of the RMB?

First of all, there are still many outstanding problems in China's macroeconomic environment. Some experts believe that at the macro level, the renminbi is currently available in internationalization. However, from the perspective of market development and financial system status, China has not reached the level of the United States and Japan. There are still problems of unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable economic development in China: international incomplete and expenditure, unreasonable economic structure, and economic development methods need to be changed. Agricultural foundation, employment, social security, ecological environment issues are outstanding, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's financial financial problems, China's finance of finance The system is still relatively fragile; China still has constraints in the institutional environment, such as the development of financial market development (inadequate depth, breadth, and international standardization), the reform of interest rate marketization, and the improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. This situation is difficult to support the rapid implementation of RMB into internationalization into international reserve currency.
Secondly, RMB capital projects have not yet been exchanged. Theoretically, RMB capital can be exchanged for technical conditions for the inevitable requirements of RMB internationalization. This is because the internationalization of RMB is based on capital projects to be exchanged. Capital projects can be exchanged for itself as the core content of RMB internationalization. If a currency cannot be freely exchanged, its acceptance internationally will inevitably be very limited, and it will also become a high -risk currency.
again, the RMB international circulation increases insufficient. From a technical perspective, insufficient international circulation of RMB will become the biggest problem in the process of advancing the internationalization of the RMB. From the international experience, in the era of gold, Britain exported huge pounds to countries around the world through capital output; the United States provided the world with a deficit in the Bretton Forest system through the current project deficit; Large -scale multinational investment provides yen funds to various countries. In recent years, although China's direct investment has increased significantly, its scale accounts for a small proportion of the world. In 2004, it was 0.74%, 1.3%in 2005, and 1.53%in 2006. The needs of international circulation.

The truthful perspective of facts, the RMB has put forward higher requirements for the reform and development of China's economic system, financial system and financial markets. To a large extent, China's economic and financial reform and development status determines the process of internationalization of the RMB. The pace of internationalization of the RMB should be consistent with the overall economic and financial reform and development of China. It can be seen that at this stage, the foundation of China's large -scale promotion of RMB internationalization is still unstable and internal preparation conditions are not sufficient.

This processing process in order

The goal of the internationalization of RMB is to establish an international image of stable RMB value, convenient circulation, and investment in value -added. ", Together with the US dollar, euro, and yen constitute a diversified currency system, and have long been effectively played the role of international currency for a long time. Drawing on the internationalization of the three major currencies of the US dollar, euro, and yen, combined with the characteristics of the RMB, the internationalization of the RMB should adopt a strategic choice from surrounding to global advancement, following the "three steps of surrounding → regionalization → internationalization". Go "strategy. To achieve the above -mentioned strategic concept of RMB internationalization, we must coordinate planning, consolidate the foundation, step by step, and prevent risks.

. Promoting the RMB into a regional settlement currency

At the end of 2008, the State Council decided to conduct a pilot to settle the RMB settlement of cargo trade between Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta, Hong Kong and Macao, Guangxi and Yunnan, and ASEAN. This measure can avoid exchange rate risks, control corporate costs, and pave the way for RMB internationalization. It is estimated that the proportion of US dollars in China's foreign trade settlement is still as high as 73%. The significant fluctuations of the US dollar in 2008 have increased the risk of trade settlement, and RMB has become one of the important buffers for regional settlement currencies. At the end of 2008, the People's Bank of China and the Bank of South Korea signed a bilateral currency exchange agreement to explore the possibility and proportion of exchanging exchange currencies into reserve currencies. The establishment of the settlement of currencies under the trade item has removed the obstacles of exchange rate fluctuations for China's import and export companies. At the same time, it also helps neighbors to lock the exchange rate risk during the financial crisis.

I. As an export department that accounts for nearly 40 % of GDP, the importance of settlement currency is still the focus of attention in the next few years. The scale of currency exchange shows the ability to stabilize the trade in the region, and then move towards members of international trade settlement. The next step can continue to expand the scope of the RMB in investment with neighboring countries and regions and the settlement of bilateral trade, strengthen trade and investment with these countries and regions, including continuing to relax the standards of RMB cash, sign a bilateral payment settlement agreement, expand the renminbi State in border trade settlement; open the RMB UnionPay card business with more countries and regions, further promote UnionPay standards to get out of the country, and create conditions to achieve internationalization of RMB in the surrounding countries and regions.

. Improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism

The comprehensive RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is an important system guarantee for the internationalization of RMB. The RMB is currently implemented by market supply and demand, reference to a package of currency to regulate and manage a floating exchange rate system. The internationalization of RMB objectively requires that the exchange rate formation mechanism should be based on marketization, and the real price of the renminbi is found through changes in the supply and demand relationship between domestic and foreign currencies. Therefore, under the premise of maintaining the renminbi value basically stable, it is necessary to further increase the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, increase the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, float up and down in a reasonable range, rise and fall, and break the long -term one -sided unilateral RMB unilateral one side Psychological expectations for appreciation. In this process, we must pay close attention to three issues: First, it is necessary to prevent foreign speculative capital from the purpose of arbitrage, which impacts the RMB and causes the RMB value to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It should be taken to maintain the relatively stable means of the renminbi value, enhance the renminbi value, and enhance the enhancement. Taking the RMB as the confidence of reserve currency; the second is to closely pay attention to the revaluation process of the RMB asset value brought about by the marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to prevent the significant fluctuations in domestic assets caused a huge impact on the domestic economy; the third is to actively promote East Asian countries Coordinate with the exchange rate policy in the region, strengthen the cooperation with currency in the region, and correctly deal with the relationship between RMB and major currencies in East Asia and Southeast Asia, especially the relationship with the Japanese yen, and gradually build a unified exchange rate mechanism in the region to make the renminbi the key region's key Price currency.

. Increase the efforts of financial reform and opening up

This in my country's financial market is low, the market efficiency is not high, and it cannot fully meet the needs of RMB internationalization of RMB transactions, monetization, settlement, payment, value preservation, and value -added. It is necessary to further standardize, improve the relatively weak markets such as the stock market, futures market, and various secondary markets, enrich market tools and products, increase the innovation of RMB derivative products, and accelerate the launch and improvement of the long -term and drop -down products and interest rates of RMB. Innovative products, RMB bond markets, and stock market derivatives, the construction breadth (multiple financial instruments), depth (developed secondary market), and unified financial markets of international norms make it an important platform for the internationalization of the RMB.
The global financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis has caused a huge impact on the financial market and exposed many defects in the current international monetary system and financial regulatory system. The internationalization of the RMB should meet the objective requirements of the global monetary system change, and give play to China's due role in the world economic system.

The process of interest rate marketization. Further expand the floating range of bank deposits and loans, and gradually make interest rates and its risk structure and term structure determined by both funds and demand in the market. Give full play to the guiding role of central ticket interest rates on the trend of the short -term interest rate market. Establishing a currency market interest rate as the benchmark, market supply and demand play a basic role. The central bank regulates the currency market interest rate through various market -oriented policy instruments, and then applies the interest rate marketization system that effectively affects other market interest rates and structures.

The "going global" strategy of Chinese financial institutions should be unswerving. As a perceptual, executor and micro -subject of the RMB, Chinese financial institutions have a very important mission. Improving company governance, strengthening internal control, and improving the level of risk control is a must -have homework before "going out"; how to provide comprehensive financial products and services abroad is a problem that needs to be thoroughly considered; Institutions need to be put into practice. In short, only by the successful "going global" by Chinese financial institutions can the yuan flow more smoothly in the global financial system.

. Accelerating the establishment of offshore RMB finance markets

In the establishment of offshore RMB financial markets to further expand the breadth and depth of the RMB market, which is an important step in the internationalization of the RMB. At present, as the largest creditors in the United States, from a technical perspective, the appreciation of the renminbi is an inevitable trend. The assets for RMB are constantly heating up, and the renminbi will definitely become an important value reserve currency. This requires the RMB to have broad and diverse investment channels, objectively put forward needs for the offshore RMB financial market, and the construction of bond markets and stock markets that are priced at RMB, which plays an important role in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.

The four major relationships in the process of internationalization of the RMB

. RMB and the coexistence of the three major international currencies

The internationalization of RMB must deal with the relationship with the existing three major international currencies. It is necessary to take the principle of "comprehensiveness, balance, progressiveness, and effectiveness", seek the balance point of the country's interests and international interests, and actively handle the coordination of economic cooperation and interests with other countries and regions. Actively carry out cooperation with the yen in the Asian region. In recent years, the economic and trade relations between China and Japan have become closely closer, and China has surpassed the United States to become Japan's largest trading partner. Therefore, the competition and cooperation between China and Japan in the field of trade and finance will be fully developed in the future. The cooperation of RMB and the yen will be the focus and difficulty of building an institutionalized East Asian regional currency system. Essence It can be strengthened to strengthen cooperation with the amount of money with Japan, and to provide credit quotas with the local currency when necessary. The US dollar and euro are the two major currencies referenced by the current exchange rate system of the RMB, and they still have a large share in the existing currency system. In the short term Big shock. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully handle the relationship between the RMB, the US dollar and the euro, strengthen cooperation and support, and jointly improve the diversified international monetary system, and promote the steady development of the world economy.

. The effectiveness and independence of monetary policy

The internationalization of RMB will have a significant impact on my country's monetary policy. First, the RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the international market, and the higher the degree of internationalization, the more complicated the market formation mechanism of the exchange rate, and the more difficult it is to maintain stability. Internationally, the complexity and difficulty of regulating the supply of currency supply have increased. Third, the monetary policy transmission mechanism is more intricate, and the RMB overflowing effect makes the domestic monetary policy invalidate when the domestic economic variables are invalidated, so that the renminbi feedback effect will make the monetary policy of other countries affect the country. The uncertainty of monetary policy conduction has increased greatly. These influences and changes determine the effectiveness of monetary policy, and inevitably sacrifice the independence of monetary policy. However, the independence of monetary policy is an important guarantee for the gradual and controllability of the RMB internationalization, and must not give up completely. Therefore, in the early days of internationalization, it is necessary to maintain moderate foreign exchange control, control the scale of RMB outbound, strengthen capital flow supervision, improve the ability of comprehensive use of prices and quantitative tools, and maintain the effectiveness and independent balance of monetary policy.

. Expanding financial openness and improving the domestic financial system

The unity of the internationalization of RMB and the high degree of financial opening and improving the high degree of domestic financial systems. If the financial openness exceeds the carrying capacity of the domestic financial system and the internationalization of the RMB is too large, it is easy to suffer from the impact of external capital and affect the security of the national economic and financial system. The Asian financial crisis is a good example. On the contrary, if the financial system is excessively protected and the reform and development of domestic financial enterprises lack the necessary motivation, it is likely that the internationalization effect of the RMB is not matched with its status and scale in the international economy. In the 1990s, the internationalization of the yen in the field of goods trade was lower than the 1980s. It was because the sound and openness of Japan's domestic financial system was far from being able to meet the requirements of the internationalization of the local currency, which caused the internationalization of the yen to be blocked. Therefore, while continuously expanding and opening up the domestic market, we must strive to ensure that the market opening level is matched with the carrying capacity of the domestic financial system to promote the smooth implementation of the RMB internationalization.

. Market evolution and government promotion interaction

In historically experience, the internationalization of currency is a process of combining market evolution and policy promotion. At present, the circulation of renminbi in neighboring countries is the result of the spontaneous market for marketing, and the "trust ticket" of the most authentic development prospects of the market to China's development prospects. However, for the internationalization of the renminbi, only this spontaneous market evolution is far from enough, and corresponding policy promotion and institutional arrangements are needed. That is, based on market evolution, supplemented by government promotion, and jointly promoted the healthy development of the RMB internationalization. It should actively establish and participate in regional economic cooperation organizations to create a good international environment for the internationalization of the RMB. The China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone currently advocated is a concrete manifestation of this action. In order to expand regional cooperation, bilateral free trade zones can also be established, bilateral economic cooperation can be strengthened, and the impact of RMB can be further expanded. Once this institutional arrangement is established, the effect of "path dependence" and "self -enhancement" will have a realistic effect on consolidating the important position of the RMB in the global currency system.

In overall, internationalization is an inevitable choice of renminbi, but we should also soberly realize that the internationalization of RMB is a process of natural development and maturity. There are still many in this process. Uncertain factors. According to the general laws of my country's national conditions and currency internationalization, roughly speaking, the internationalization process of RMB should follow the following basic ideas.
First, strive to promote the free exchange of RMB capital projects
The free exchange of RMB capital projects is a necessary prerequisite for RMB internationalization. A currency that cannot be freely exchanged. Limited, it will also become a currency with high risk. Judging from the current situation in my country, it is not yet possible to freely exchange the free exchange of capital projects. In my country, in the basis of further deepening the reform of the economic and financial system, vigorously developing the capital market, and improving the financial regulatory system, choose to accelerate the complete free exchange of RMB on the right time, and make the necessary preparation for the final internationalization of the renminbi r r
second, bilateral protocols are the means, and the regionalization of border trade and investment as a breakthrough to promote RMB
According to the research of the yen and Mark internationalization process and the study of international trade quotation according to the International Monetary Fund, it is found that: The status of a country's currency in the world is directly related to the share of the country's exports in the world trade and investment. Strong exports and international investment status can directly promote the country's currency internationally widely. Therefore, it is the most important force to strengthen direct investment and trade in neighboring countries and regions. From the recent period, the internationalization of neighboring countries and regions should become the main phase of the internationalization process of the RMB. This requires bilateral agreements to conclude a bilateral agreement on overseas circulation of Chinese currency authorities and neighboring economies. Given that the circulation and storage of RMB in these economies is already a factor, the difficulty of bilateral protocol may not be that the surrounding economies are not allowed to accept the output of the RMB and corresponding assets, but how Chinese currency authorities can tolerate and open these overseas RMB to the country to the country The return channels and the huge risks that may generate and flow abroad. The currency authorities should adopt the default attitude towards the needs of the neighboring countries economy, which can ensure their active position in the decision -making and implementation of monetary policy. The passive situation of the decision -making and implementation of monetary policy in Ji fluctuations. However, the default is not equal to ignoring it. It is necessary to deal with potential problems in China and prevent the risk of reversal of RMB internationalization. When the international economy has a strong demand for the renminbi, the default is equivalent to encouragement.
third, start the strategy of "financial power"
The quality of financial assets is a function of the international competitiveness of a country, and a high -efficiency financial market in line with international standards is to the currency because it can quickly convert financial assets and gives money. The holder provides a channel to avoid currency holding risks. The two can enhance the confidence and optimistic expectations of currency holders for the currency. The strategy of financial strong country includes: ① Eliminate hidden dangers in the domestic financial industry, such as the hidden dangers of the formation mechanism of non -performing assets in the banking system and the problem of dislocation of the securities market. ② Accelerate the development of the domestic currency market and the bond market, and form a "Liquidity Asset Pool" (Zhong Wei, 2002) "that regulate the demand and supply of RMB to maintain the stability of RMB and financial asset prices. ③ Accelerate the construction of the financial market and international financial centers. The highly open and developed financial market and financial centers will make a country and region the core and hub of the international financial market. It is not only an important international exchange and adjustment of a country's currency The carrier and channels are also an important mechanism for the converting currency of a country into international settlement. ④ It is necessary to speed up the pace of the construction of the global banking system. Banking institutions that have developed and all over the world are not only the main entities that ensure the storage, circulation and conversion of RMB overseas, but also have a very positive role in promoting my country's foreign trade and overseas investment. ⑤ QDII is launched in a timely manner (the Qualify Domestic Investors). QDII is conducive to promoting mainland securities firms to the international market, which is conducive to guiding domestic residents to participate in overseas securities investment through normal channels, which is conducive to improving Chinese companies in the international capital market The image is conducive to guiding the domestic securities market to gradually reduce the foam.
Fourth, maintain the long -term stability of the renminbi, and actively participate in and promote the Asian currency financial cooperation
, although the stability of the RMB, whether it is under the pressure of appreciation or to maintain its stability under the pressure of depreciation, it requires costs, but currencies Stable long -term returns are greater than cost (R.A.Mundel, 2002). On the one hand, the reputation of the renminbi in the Asian financial crisis has been established, and it should not be weakened in the process of economic rejuvenation in neighboring countries; on the other hand, it is necessary to let the economies of neighboring countries recognize that although China is currently operating in Asia's economic operation in Asia, China is currently operating in Asia's economy in Asia. The role of the middle is just a balanced power, but in terms of international economic relations, China and Southeast Asia are a relationship of honor and losses. If you abandon this huge market in China, it will inevitably bring itself unfavorable to itself. For China, on the one hand, the money issuance income can be obtained from the "strong" of the RMB as the cost compensation for the stability of the renminbi. On the other hand, the stability of the Asian economy will promote China's economic development, because Southeast Asia is China's main trading partner Essence To promote the internationalization of the renminbi, we should first focus on Southeast Asian countries that are closely related to my country's economic connection. China should continue to bear the responsibility of Asian economic revival, thereby enhancing the international prestige of the RMB and actively participating and promoting Asian currency financial cooperation.
Fifth, the integration of the economy in the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan should be placed in the current primary task
Due to the common ethnic group and historical and cultural background, the Mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan areas are very close. Due to the influence of Confucian culture, Southeast Asian countries have formed a influential "Chinese Economic Circle". Foreign exchange reserves in the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan are among the best of the world. Especially the economy of the mainland and Hong Kong has gradually been integrated. According to the "The Gravity Model", the increase in geographical location and the increase in bilateral trade proportion will make common currencies possible. As the motherland is fully unified, the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan have become a strong economic unity. When the conditions are mature, the four currencies can be fully integrated into a single currency: China dollar.

The countermeasures for RMB to internationalization

The experience of internationalization of currency in various countries is worthy of our reference. The current internationalization of RMB is mainly based on the natural development of actual economy and trade. It is a reflection of the continuous economic growth of China's economic growth after China's reform and opening up. The author believes that in the strategic choice of RMB to internationalization, the best solution should be designed according to China's national conditions and drawing on the internationalization of currency internationalization in various countries to steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB.
First, actively create the political and economic conditions of the RMB internationalization. The Chinese economy must continue to grow and maintain a leading position in Asia, and continue to maintain the relatively stable renminbi value, which is the basis for the internationalization of the RMB. At the same time, strengthen exchanges between high -level governments with neighboring countries and regions and become important participants and promoters of international economic activities. So as to eliminate the concerns and doubts of our country and regions. Further strengthen direct investment and trade with neighboring countries and countries around the world, improve financial services, strengthen statistical monitoring of cross -border circulation of RMB, and establish a free exchange test area for RMB. This is an important force to promote the internationalization of RMB.
It, further relax the restrictions on RMB entry and exit. It is recommended to gradually cancel the policy restrictions of RMB entry and exit in the border between China, Laos, and Myanmar, so that it can promote the renminbi to become regional international payment methods and regional international reserve assets under the conditions that have laws. Essence The author believes that the policy restrictions on the cancellation of RMB entry and exit in some border areas are conducive to the further development of bilateral economic and trade exchanges; The "curb of the behavior of the" behavior, further standardize the settlement of border trade, thereby effectively promoting the internationalization of the RMB.
In third, set up the RMB free exchange test area. It is recommended to choose border areas with a high sense of recognition of the RMB. For example, a special management policy for RMB in the border areas of Guangxi and Yunnan, the RMB funds held by residents and non -residents can be exchanged for free exchange currency or adjacent to adjacent to the bank channels. National currency. At the same time, statistical monitoring of RMB exchange, cross -border flow, and exchange rate changes in order to timely and accurately grasp the situation of acceptance and use of RMB in neighboring countries and regions. Through the operation of the test area, experience in the internationalization of the RMB.
Fourth, the state has adopted encouragement and protection policies for the circulation of overseas renminbi. The first is to actively use RMB in foreign economy. When conditions are mature, Chinese enterprises, business and other units can actively use RMB in foreign trade and other economic exchanges. In the early stages of development, we can consider giving discounts as appropriate for foreign companies willing to use RMB. Second, according to the objective needs of my country's economic development and reform and opening up, there are selection and steps to relax the restrictions on cross -border capital trading activities. The project is selected, piloted first, gradually expanded, and promoted the internationalization of RMB.
Fifth, we must further solve the problem of overseas renminbi return. If the RMB does not flow to my country, it is difficult for neighboring countries or regions to use RMB as a regional reserve currency. In addition to continuing the use of RMB settlement in border trade, it can further allow my country and neighbor countries or regions to use RMB settlement in general trade. In addition, you can consider allowing neighboring countries to use RMB to purchase my country's government bonds or direct investment in my country. This means that my country not only promotes the use of RMB from border trade to transactions from general trade and government bonds, but also improves the policy that foreign residents can only use foreign exchange to invest in my country. my country has realized the exchange of RMB in frequent projects and some capital projects. After all, the renminbi will eventually move towards exchanges, and it will also move towards internationalization. Under conditions, China's development is becoming a new force for the development of the world economy. The development of world economic development will also bring new important opportunities to China's development, and the renminbi will be internationalized.

For China, if you promote the renminbi in 8 years to become an international currency, you should pay attention to the following issues:

The first, to avoid the financial crisis in China, Currency crisis or large financial turmoil. If a similar crisis occurs internationally, China should strive to minimize losses as much as possible.

The second is to strengthen China's domestic demand growth capacity.

The third, we must complete the construction of a developed financial market, and strive to make China's national economy based on the powerful real economy and virtual economy. The RMB banknotes should be internationalized, and developed virtual economic markets without RMB (overall include stock markets, futures markets, derivatives markets, and foreign exchange markets).

The fourth, we should pay attention to the adoption of international agreements to promote RMB into the international market. This approach includes: large currency exchange agreement; subscribing to international bonds in RMB; risk of hedging foreign exchange reserve internationally with RMB; global settlement systems for RMB bonds, RMB spot, RMB futures and other markets that improve the RMB. Generally, the focus of operations can be followed by the programs of the first Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and neighboring countries, and then enter the global market.

The five, within 8 years, avoid a large exchange rate dispute with the US dollar, euro, and yen, and effectively prevent great appreciation and depreciation of the renminbi.
In international currency outlook
Trifen's problem
"Trifen Paradox", which can also be said to be a Trifen problem. A view on the Crisis of Gold and the US dollar. The description in the book is like this: "Because the dollar is linked to gold, and the currency of other countries is linked to the US dollar, although the US dollar has obtained the status of international core currencies, in order to develop international trade, it is necessary to use the US dollar as settlement and reserves. Currency, this will lead to the continuous precipitation of currencies flowing out of the United States overseas, and a long -term trade deficit will occur for the United States. The premise of the US dollar as the core of the international currency is to maintain the stability and firmness of the US dollar currency. Long -term trade surplus country. These two requirements contradict each other, so it is a paradox. "
It I think the future super sovereignty is likely to be electronic currency ~ Haha, of course, this is the reverie ~